{"id":7732,"date":"2026-08-31T05:06:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T05:06:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=7732"},"modified":"2026-08-31T05:06:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T05:06:23","slug":"gop-trailing-in-8-battleground-senate-races-2-months-before-election-day-polling-aggregate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=7732","title":{"rendered":"GOP trailing in 8 battleground Senate races 2 months before Election Day: polling aggregate"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 Republicans are trailing in eight of the major battleground Senate races, just two months out from Election Day, the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling shows.<\/p>\n

Read more Novak Djokovic brought to tears after body betrays him in stunning first-round upset at US Open<\/a><\/p>\n

The GOP had long been widely seen as the underdogs for control of the House due to historical trends against the party in control of the White House, but the Senate map is starting to look increasingly fraught, even in once reliably red states such as Texas and Ohio.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt points out the obvious that Republicans are in pretty bad shape going into the midterms and that they\u2019re looking at historic losses,\u201d Republican strategist Terry Holt bluntly told The Post about the bleak polling.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe question is whether some of these races can be saved with some miraculous turnout that apparently is going to be very expensive or whether or not the mood in this country can be changed fundamentally.\u201d<\/p>\n

Republicans are down 2 points in Alaska, 7.5 points in Georgia, 2.3 points in Maine, 1.8 points in Michigan, 2.6 points in Ohio, 2 points in New Hampshire, 8 points in North Carolina, and 1.9 points in Texas, according to the latest RCP polling aggregate data of the Senate races.<\/p>\n

One bright spot for the party is Rep. Ashley Hinson\u2019s (R-Iowa) 1.4 percentage-point lead in the Hawkeye State over Josh Turek. The problem is Iowa appears to be far more competitive than it had been during recent cycles.<\/p>\n

Democrats currently hold three of the battleground seats in contention, while Republicans have the other six. All of the battleground races in the RCP aggregate, except Georgia and North Carolina, are within what would usually be the margin of error in a typical poll. <\/p>\n

\u201cNational Republicans have been sounding the alarm that midterms are hard since last year, and we\u2019ve been firm that not a single race should be taken for granted,\u201d one Republican operative involved in Senate races told The Post. <\/p>\n

That operative stressed that \u201cRepublicans continue to believe we\u2019ll hold the Senate\u201d and pointed to a recent analysis about how polling in the summertime has typically made Democrats look stronger than they actually are during recent cycles. <\/p>\n

In that analysis, Echelon pollster Patrick Ruffini noted that 3,312 polls had, on average, overestimated Democrats by 3.7 points over the past four election cycles. During the summer, the error rate was about 5.9 percentage points. <\/p>\n

Republicans are sitting on a massive cash advantage over Democrats between President Trump\u2019s super PACS and the official party groups that haven\u2019t been fully put to work yet. There are also questions about how much one-time trillionaire Elon Musk will dip into his deep pockets. <\/p>\n

Moreover, there have been dramatic instances where the RCP aggregate significantly overestimated Democrats in the past. It had Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) down dramatically against Sara Giddeon, but she ultimately won by 8.6 percentage points in her 2020 reelection bid.<\/p>\n

Read more Miranda Devine: AG Letitia James turns evil eye on Trump \u2014 and blind eye to NY crime<\/a><\/p>\n

Recently, in Michigan, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed had a 10.2 percentage-point lead over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in RCP aggregate for his Democratic primary, but he only won by 1 percentage point. <\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m seeing private polling in some of these [races] \u2026 where they\u2019re continuing to underpoll Republicans and Trump voters,\u201d veteran Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin said.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the Republicans are in much better shape than what a lot of these media polls are showing, and look, we still got a long way to go between now and Election Day.\u201d<\/p>\n

This go-around, Trump won\u2019t be on the ballot, posing complications for Republicans in turning out their base, while Democrats are likely to be highly motivated. <\/p>\n

\u201cOne of the most important things is going to be for these campaigns to turn out Trump voters that don\u2019t normally show up,\u201d McLaughlin stressed, noting that he\u2019s optimistic the GOP will be able to pull that off.<\/p>\n

To achieve that goal, Republicans have been capitalizing on far-left radicalism this cycle, including the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which they hope will mobilize their base.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u201cRepublicans are united in defeating Democrats\u2019 socialist insurgency, which would raise taxes on working families to bankroll free benefits for illegal immigrants,\u201d National Republican Senatorial Committee press secretary Bernadette Breslin said.<\/p>\n

Most polls overwhelmingly show that affordability is at the top of voters\u2019 minds heading into the midterms. That issue could get even more pressing in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, if Trump\u2019s trade war with Canada doesn\u2019t get resolved.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m very suspicious of the RCP polling in general, but they do a lot of it, and it\u2019s trackable,\u201d Holt said of the aggregate. \u201cThe mood is sour, and I think nobody\u2019s really questioning that, and even if you\u2019re oversampling Republicans in your poll, you\u2019re going to get that.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI think that might be the real problem that this doesn\u2019t show how really, truly bad it is.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Here\u2019s what NYC can expect from brewing powerful Super El Nino<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Republicans are the underdogs in all nine of the major battleground Senate races, just two months out from Election Day, the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling shows. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nGOP trailing in 8 battleground Senate races 2 months before Election Day: polling aggregate - Metro Transit Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=7732\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GOP trailing in 8 battleground Senate races 2 months before Election Day: polling aggregate - 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