{"id":7061,"date":"2026-08-21T06:38:33","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T06:38:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=7061"},"modified":"2026-08-21T06:38:33","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T06:38:33","slug":"beware-irans-most-devious-weapon-another-october-surprise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=7061","title":{"rendered":"Beware Iran’s most devious weapon \u2014 another ‘October surprise’"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The October surprise was born in Iran \u2014 and 46 years later, the Islamic Republic may be preparing to launch another one.<\/p>\n

Read more Pennsylvania university soccer star Karoline Heintz stabbed to death by boyfriend who had his mom help dump teen\u2019s body<\/a><\/p>\n

In 1980, the hostage crisis \u2014 52 Americans seized at the US embassy in Tehran the year before during Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolution \u2014 dominated the presidential race between incumbent Jimmy Carter and challenger Ronald Reagan.<\/p>\n

Reagan\u2019s campaign manager Bill Casey, assuming Iran would dread his hawkish boss\u2019 victory, worried that Iran might release the hostages right before Election Day \u2014 and hand Carter a last-minute win.<\/p>\n

Seeking to short-circuit what he dubbed an \u201cOctober surprise,\u201d Casey told the press of his concern, and the phrase stuck.<\/p>\n

Today it\u2019s used for any late-breaking event timed to swing an election.<\/p>\n

But Casey was wrong: Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini had his own reasons to want Carter defeated.<\/p>\n

Carter had admitted the hated Shah to the United States, making him the face of Washington\u2019s decades-long support for the monarchy; Carter had frozen Iranian assets, imposed sanctions and broken diplomatic relations with Tehran.<\/p>\n

In Khomeini\u2019s eyes, humiliating Carter and denying him the political triumph of the hostages\u2019 homecoming served the Islamic Revolution\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n

He held the hostages through Election Day and beyond, releasing them within minutes of Reagan\u2019s inauguration on Jan. 20, 1981 \u2014 extraordinary timing that fueled allegations of a secret Reagan-Iran deal, which exhaustive congressional investigations eventually debunked.<\/p>\n

By letting the hostages dangle, Khomeini successfully manipulated American politics.<\/p>\n

We may soon face another Iranian ploy aimed at leveraging foreign elections to weaken the regime\u2019s enemies.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s election is scheduled for Oct. 27; the US midterms are Nov. 3, exactly one week later.<\/p>\n

That makes the end of October a potentially dangerous window for regime mischief.<\/p>\n

Tehran could attack Israel directly or engineer a serious escalation through one of its terror proxies \u2014 calculating that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, days before an election, would have little choice but to respond forcefully.<\/p>\n

Imagine a ballistic missile barrage, massive enough to overwhelm Israeli defenses, killing scores of civilians in Tel Aviv or Haifa.<\/p>\n

Or an Iranian terrorist proxy carrying out a mass-casualty attack against an Israeli population center.<\/p>\n

The precise scenario is unknowable, but the calculation is not: Inflict enough carnage that no Israeli prime minister could allow it to go unanswered.<\/p>\n

But Tehran would be counting on that response.<\/p>\n

A powerful Israeli retaliation could trigger a broader regional escalation, drive the Iran war to the top of the news, spike oil and gasoline prices, and create serious political and economic complications for President Donald Trump and Republicans fighting to retain the House and Senate just days later.<\/p>\n

Read more Jacob deGrom makes strikeout history against familiar foe<\/a><\/p>\n

In the regime\u2019s ideal scenario, Tehran would absorb the Israeli blow, play the victim, and wait to see if Republicans lose.<\/p>\n

If they do, Iran gets exactly the narrative it wants: Israel helped cost Republicans Congress.<\/p>\n

Tehran could then exploit the ensuing recriminations to deepen divisions between Washington and Jerusalem, counting on American critics of Israel, on both the right and the left, to hammer home that message.<\/p>\n

That makes the days immediately preceding the Israeli election a particularly attractive window for an Iranian provocation.<\/p>\n

We should be thinking about this now \u2014 because there\u2019s little doubt Tehran is already doing so.<\/p>\n

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps knows our political system well; it studies our divisions and looks for opportunities to exploit them.<\/p>\n

The Treasury Department sanctioned IRGC-linked entities in 2020 and again in 2024 for using disinformation and hacked material to interfere in US elections.<\/p>\n

Countering an October surprise \u2014 whether this scenario or others \u2014 requires close US-Israel coordination over the next two months to war-game the possibilities.<\/p>\n

American and Israeli political, military and intelligence officials should agree on potential responses before<\/em> missiles are flying, emotions are high, oil prices are spiking, poll numbers are dropping and both governments are working at cross-purposes \u2014 straight into the Islamic Republic\u2019s trap .<\/p>\n

One option should at least be considered: Revenge may be a dish better served cold.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

If Iran launches an attack deliberately designed to provoke Israel before the elections, Israel could defend itself, absorb what it can, establish Iranian responsibility, and wait \u2014 until after both<\/em> elections \u2014 to retaliate at a time of its choosing.<\/p>\n

But Trump would need to give Netanyahu the political cover necessary not to respond immediately, and a commitment that the IDF could act after the midterms.<\/p>\n

Trump could also make clear publicly, well before October, that Washington is aware of the potential regime trick, saying that an election-season provocation will fail to divide the United States and Israel, and retaliation will inevitably follow.<\/p>\n

Forty-six years ago, an ayatollah exploited an American election and helped hobble a sitting American president.<\/p>\n

The current ayatollah should not be allowed to run the same playbook on this one.<\/p>\n

Read more Tornado tears through Long Island beach club in insane video<\/a><\/p>\n

Mark Dubowitz is chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the regime\u2019s ideal scenario, Tehran would absorb the Israeli blow, play the victim \u2014 and watch Republicans lose the midterms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7060,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"yoast_head":"\nBeware Iran's most devious weapon \u2014 another 'October surprise' - Metro Transit Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=7061\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Beware Iran's most devious weapon \u2014 another 'October surprise' - 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