{"id":6053,"date":"2026-08-03T15:07:47","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T15:07:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=6053"},"modified":"2026-08-03T15:07:47","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T15:07:47","slug":"bus-fare-evasion-is-just-the-start-of-kathy-hochuls-looming-mta-cash-woes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=6053","title":{"rendered":"Bus-fare evasion is just the start of Kathy Hochul’s looming MTA cash woes"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Last week,\u00a0Metropolitan\u00a0Transportation Authority\u00a0chief Janno Lieber pointed to one culprit behind the steep deficits that loom for the state-run\u00a0transit\u00a0system: Mayor\u00a0Zohran Mamdani\u2019s free-bus push, which spurred\u00a0more people to stop paying.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Gov. Kathy Hochul\u00a0will\u00a0have to\u00a0use her\u00a0leverage to neutralize\u00a0the mayor\u2019s rhetoric\u00a0\u2014 and to fix the upcoming\u00a0$22.8 billion\u00a0MTA budget\u00a0for 2027, whose woes aren\u2019t<\/em> Mamdani\u2019s fault, but hers.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Lieber is right that bus-fare evasion\u00a0is a crisis: With\u00a0more than 48% of riders not paying,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0nearly five\u00a0times the rate of\u00a0subway evasion.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Yet the\u00a0NYPD and the\u00a0MTA had been making progress (respectively) via uniformed and civilian enforcement of fare rules: Evasion inched\u00a0down from above 51% two years ago, before Mamdani won\u00a0office\u00a0last fall.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

As Lieber\u00a0said\u00a0Wednesday, \u201cAll the talk of free buses, it does have an impact . . .\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0not blaming\u00a0anyone,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0not telling anyone to shut up.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s\u00a0no surprise that the\u00a0mayor\u00a0who wants the buses to be free\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0care that people aren\u2019t\u00a0paying for them.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As\u00a0Mamdani\u00a0said\u00a0in July, with Hochul and Lieber looking on, \u201cWe\u2019ll continue not only to believe, but to work towards making our bus system free as well.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This\u00a0year,\u00a0NYPD\u00a0tickets for theft of services on the bus are down 73%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

But\u00a0the MTA\u2019s fiscal problems go beyond Mamdani.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Its spending update last week was a blowout: Next year\u2019s budget will be\u00a0up\u00a013% compared to two years ago.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Just since February\u2019s projection, a\u00a0$160 million deficit for next year has\u00a0nearly doubled, to $295 million.<\/p>\n

By 2028, the deficit will top half a billion \u2014 and\u00a0nearly $900 million\u00a0by 2030.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Finance chief\u00a0Jai Patel\u00a0warned\u00a0of that old bogeyman: \u201cstructural cost pressures.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Health benefits for workers and retirees\u00a0are the biggest propellant, up 52% since 2019, to $3 billion\u00a0in 2027.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But the biggest problem here is the governor, as the costs of the settlement of the May weekend LIRR strike become clear.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The authority had\u00a0wanted to hold annual raises for its workforce\u00a0to 2%, as it engages\u00a0now\u00a0in talks with\u00a0the Transport Workers Union,\u00a0which\u00a0staffs\u00a0subways and buses.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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But it\u00a0undermined its stance\u00a0when\u00a0it settled the railroad strike with a 3.8% raise for\u00a0the current\u00a0year, which\u00a0the TWU\u00a0will\u00a0want to match.\u00a0<\/p>\n

These extra costs could consume\u00a0nearly $200 million\u00a0a year.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the same time as\u00a0Hochul\u00a0caved to the LIRR,\u00a0she\u00a0expanded pension benefits\u00a0for transit workers\u00a0hired after the 2008\u00a0financial crisis,\u00a0who\u00a0were required\u00a0to pay\u00a0more\u00a0into pensions and retire later.<\/p>\n

Now,\u00a0the MTA will have to pay an\u00a0additional\u00a0$30 million a year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

You might think, here we go again with fare and toll hikes.<\/p>\n

But the MTA is\u00a0already<\/em>\u00a0accounting for\u00a0a two 4% fare and toll hikes over the next three years.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The\u00a0congestion-pricing toll is also rising in 2028,\u00a0from $9 to $12.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That extra money will fall short.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Only\u00a0one person can save the MTA, and\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0not\u00a0the\u00a0mayor.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hochul\u00a0has three tasks:\u00a0<\/p>\n

First,\u00a0tell the public\u00a0that free buses are never going to happen.<\/p>\n

Yes,\u00a0she held the line this year, when Mamdani was at the height of his political power.<\/p>\n

But she needs to be clear that her \u201cnot right now\u201d attitude is\u00a0never<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The MTA\u00a0is in no position to give up\u00a0$1.1\u00a0billion\u00a0a year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Second,\u00a0until riders get the message, she\u00a0must supervise an\u00a0all-out\u00a0focus on bus evasion.\u00a0<\/p>\n

NYPD officers\u00a0can support\u00a0the MTA\u2019s civilian teams, which\u00a0recently\u00a0started an initiative\u00a0to ask people for proof of payment while on board the bus\u00a0by tapping their OMNY or credit card against a handheld machine.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If Mamdani\u2019s NYPD\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0have enough officers\u00a0to help, she can direct him to add them, with the money he will need from the state for next year\u2019s\u00a0city\u00a0budget as leverage.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Finally, she must \u2014 if\u00a0belatedly\u00a0\u2014 hold the line on union raises.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Any wage gains must come with labor efficiencies, including a\u00a0curtailment\u00a0of bus-driver sick time \u2014 which is harming service.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hochul is vulnerable\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0MTA budget: She is the governor who launched congestion pricing, promised for decades by advocates to be\u00a0transformational.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Absent cost\u00a0fixes,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0just another\u00a0toll or\u00a0tax among the\u00a0MTA\u2019s\u00a0$12.4 billion\u00a0worth of annual\u00a0taxes\u00a0and tolls, from payroll to sales taxes.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mamdani\u2019s not going to shut up\u00a0\u2014 but Hochul can ensure that his words\u00a0are\u00a0irrelevant.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nicole Gelinas is a\u00a0contributing editor to the Manhattan Institute\u2019s City Journal.\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Naked nutjob jumps from Brooklyn Bridge after erecting flags<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gov. Kathy Hochul\u00a0will\u00a0have to\u00a0use her\u00a0leverage to neutralize\u00a0the mayor\u2019s rhetoric\u00a0\u2014 and to fix the upcoming\u00a0$22.8 billion\u00a0MTA budget\u00a0for 2027, whose woes aren\u2019t Mamdani\u2019s fault, but hers.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6052,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"yoast_head":"\nBus-fare evasion is just the start of Kathy Hochul's looming MTA cash woes - Metro Transit Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=6053\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bus-fare evasion is just the start of Kathy Hochul's looming MTA cash woes - Metro Transit Review\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gov. 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