{"id":453,"date":"2026-05-25T23:10:36","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T23:10:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=453"},"modified":"2026-05-25T23:10:36","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T23:10:36","slug":"how-to-think-about-the-iran-war-and-what-it-means-for-oil-and-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=453","title":{"rendered":"How to think about the Iran war \u2014 and what it means for oil and stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Yes, an end to the Iran war remains elusive \u2013 but that doesn\u2019t mean investors should wait around for it.<\/p>\n

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What if talks fail? Won\u2019t inflation skyrocket? Shouldn\u2019t I wait for this to pass before buying stocks? Those are key questions I have been getting as this conflict drags on. They\u2019re understandable, but they\u2019re also expensive.<\/p>\n

Since my\u00a0March column, America \u201cdouble blockaded\u201d the Strait of Hormuz. Yet little changed. The US blockade only affects Iranian exports and imports. Iran\u2019s oil went mostly to China which, by the way, had stocked up beforehand.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Strait workarounds proliferate. Saudi Arabia\u2019s East-West pipeline exports were under 800,000 barrels per day pre-war. Now, they\u2019re over 5 million. Abu Dhabi\u2019s Fujairah Port exports jumped 40% in March to 1.6 million bpd. Both let Gulf oil circumvent the Strait.<\/p>\n

This is true even with jet fuel. Worst-case scenarios of mass cancellations and soaring airfares don\u2019t just assume the Strait won\u2019t open \u2013 they hinge on no new supply elsewhere. China is resuming exports. Refiners elsewhere push capacity higher. The EU\u2019s smart move to American kerosene quashes fears of cancelling summer Continental holidays. The world is working.<\/p>\n

Non-Gulf energy producers also are pumping more. April US oil exports hit all-time records. Venezuela is ramping up shipping. Countries reliant on Qatari natural gas \u2013 like South Korea and Italy \u2013 are buying more from America and Australia. Asian nations are refiring coal power plants. Shortages will be short-lived.<\/p>\n

What about Tehran\u2019s tolls? Some fear Iran charging $1 per barrel \u2013 roughly $2 million per ship to pass through Hormuz. But marginal gulf oil production costs average about $20 per barrel. Another dollar isn\u2019t much. Note, also, a Japanese tanker passed tollfree on April 29.\u00a0 Will more?<\/p>\n

If<\/em>\u00a0Iran successfully implements a pay-for-passage plan, and somehow jolts prices, it is temporary. Higher prices would spur even\u00a0more<\/em>\u00a0production globally. Soon, supply and demand via added supply lowers prices. It always does.<\/p>\n

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This also defangs inflation fears. Yes, April US consumer inflation hit 3.8% versus a year ago as fuel costs soared. But this doesn\u2019t foretell 2022-style pain. Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman proved eons ago that inflation is always and everywhere derived from excess money creation. US M4, the broadest money measure, is up 5.8% year-over-year, matching pre-pandemic rates and far below the COVID era\u2019s 30%-plus that fueled 2022\u2019s white-hot inflation.<\/p>\n

Absent far bigger money supply growth, higher energy prices simply spur substitution. More spent on irreplaceable fuel, less on replaceable goods, which yes \u2013 is hard on luxury firms. No fun, but it doesn\u2019t boost inflation or hit GDP \u2013 it just rearranges both. And only slightly: Energy totals 6% of America\u2019s consumer price basket \u2013 percents of percents at most.<\/p>\n

Some fear other pass-throughs \u2013 like surging petrochemical feedstock prices used to create plastics and fertilizers \u2013 lifting all sorts of prices. That isn\u2019t happening. Excluding energy and food, April\u2019s US goods prices increased 1.1% versus last year \u2013 a downtick from March\u2019s 1.2% and flat to January and February\u2019s readings. Meanwhile, truck convoys are conveying stuck fertilizer from the Gulf region, easing shortages.<\/p>\n

Why shouldn\u2019t you wait to own stocks until after all the chaos cools? Because markets never wait for clarity. Consider 2022. US stocks bottomed in October. The Ukraine war continued to rage. US inflation was 9.1%. The Fed was hiking rates. Gloom reigned. But stocks pre-priced a better future \u2013 long before most people fathomed it. Just as they did with COVID and after last year\u2019s tariff shock.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

It is happening again. Stocks\u2019 return to all-time highs isn\u2019t fake. This is how rebounds look. Stocks rise before emotions calm. Fear is costly for seekers of clarity.<\/p>\n

More gut-wrenching gyrations may come. But markets don\u2019t stress daily developments for long. So, lift your gaze from the daily headlines about the blockades, the threats and the on-again, off-again talks. Look further out, just like stocks do.<\/p>\n

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more Wet Memorial Day scares off NYC beach crowds \u2014 but diehard locals stick it out<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yes, an end to the Iran war remains elusive \u2013 but that doesn\u2019t mean investors should wait around for it. What if talks fail? Won\u2019t inflation skyrocket? Shouldn\u2019t I wait for this to pass before buying stocks? 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