{"id":423,"date":"2026-05-25T15:42:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T15:42:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=423"},"modified":"2026-05-25T15:42:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T15:42:04","slug":"oil-prices-drop-5-after-trump-says-iran-talks-are-moving-ahead-but-hormuz-still-a-wildcard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=423","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices drop 5% after Trump says Iran talks are moving ahead \u2014 but Hormuz still a wildcard"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Oil prices dropped Monday after President Trump said negotiations with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were moving ahead \u2014 though traders remained braced for more potential chaos as the blockade that has choked global energy supplies drags on.<\/p>\n

Read more Trump demands six Muslim countries join Abraham Accords if they want to be part of Iran deal that \u2018is proceeding nicely\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n

Both international benchmark Brent crude and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude had fallen about 5% as of 9:45 a.m. ET \u2014 to $98 a barrel and $92 per barrel, respectively \u2014 after Trump voiced progress on talks with Iran.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner,\u201d he wrote Sunday on social media, while cautioning that the US would \u201cnot rush into a deal.\u201d<\/p>\n

Monday\u2019s selloff extended losses from last week, when WTI dropped more than 8% and Brent fell more than 5% after Trump said he halted imminent airstrikes on Iran to give diplomacy more time.<\/p>\n

Still, despite Monday\u2019s decline, crude remains dramatically elevated from prewar levels after surging more than 30% since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran in late February.<\/p>\n

Scott Martin, a partner at Kingsview Wealth Management, told The Post that investors may be prematurely pricing in a resolution to the Iran crisis even as major risks remain unresolved.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the market may be getting a little ahead of itself here,\u201d he said. \u201cEvery positive headline around Iran talks seems to knock oil lower, but the actual supply situation still looks pretty tight.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of traders are acting like this thing is almost resolved already, and I don\u2019t think we\u2019re there yet,\u201d he added. \u201cYou still have production offline and the Strait of Hormuz is still a real wildcard.\u201d<\/p>\n

The latest rout was driven by mounting hopes that Washington and Tehran could eventually hammer out a framework to reopen Hormuz \u2014 the narrow waterway that handles roughly 20% of the world\u2019s oil supply, which has become the epicenter of the largest energy shock in modern history.<\/p>\n

Iran has maintained a de-facto blockade of the strait since early March, forcing vessels to seek permission before passage or risk attack.<\/p>\n

The move followed the killing of Iran\u2019s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of top regime figures in US and Israeli strikes.<\/p>\n

The US retaliated with its own blockade targeting Iranian ports and shipping.<\/p>\n

Trump said Sunday that the American crackdown would remain in \u201cfull force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.\u201d<\/p>\n

But even as Wall Street cheered signs of diplomacy, analysts warned the market may be getting ahead of itself.<\/p>\n

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there was a \u201cpretty solid thing on the table\u201d involving reopening the strait and beginning temporary nuclear negotiations with Tehran, though Iranian officials quickly poured cold water on expectations of an imminent breakthrough.<\/p>\n

Read more Ilhan Omar brushes off proposal that could see her banned from Congress<\/a><\/p>\n

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said talks had advanced on several issues but stressed that did not mean Tehran was close to signing an agreement.<\/p>\n

The mixed messaging underscored the fragile state of negotiations \u2014 and the enormous risk still hanging over global oil markets.<\/p>\n

The International Energy Agency estimates that more than 14 million barrels per day of oil production remains shut in across the Gulf region, while cumulative supply disruptions have already topped 1 billion barrels.<\/p>\n

Global inventories plunged by roughly 250 million barrels during March and April as refiners scrambled to replace missing Middle Eastern crude, the IEA oil market report from last week said.<\/p>\n

Even if a deal is eventually reached, analysts expect it could take months \u2014 not days \u2014 for tanker traffic, insurance markets and damaged production facilities to normalize.<\/p>\n

That reality has left traders caught between collapsing geopolitical optimism and an energy market still suffering from severe physical shortages.<\/p>\n

\u201cPhysical oil flows\u201d remain the key issue, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters, warning investors not to overreact to headlines about diplomacy while shipping through Hormuz remains heavily restricted.<\/p>\n

The Energy Information Administration still expects Brent crude to average above $100 a barrel in the near term before potentially easing later this year if Gulf traffic gradually resumes.<\/p>\n

Martin warned that crude could quickly rebound if negotiations stall after markets already stripped out much of the geopolitical risk premium.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u201cIf these talks drag out or fall apart, oil could move right back up fast because the market already pulled some of that fear premium out,\u201d he told The Post.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bigger issue right now is mixed messaging,\u201d Martin added. \u201cOne day it sounds like progress, the next day it sounds tense again. That makes it really hard for traders to know what\u2019s real and what\u2019s just short-term headline movement.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the shipping crisis remains acute.<\/p>\n

War-risk insurance premiums for tankers have soared more than 1,000% since the conflict erupted, with some vessels facing insurance charges approaching $7 million per voyage.<\/p>\n

Read more Thomas Massie\u2019s defeat brings the odious Epstein Era to a humiliating end<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oil prices dropped Monday after President Trump said negotiations with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were moving ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":422,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nOil prices drop 5% after Trump says Iran talks are moving ahead \u2014 but Hormuz still a wildcard - Metro Transit Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=423\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil prices drop 5% after Trump says Iran talks are moving ahead \u2014 but Hormuz still a wildcard - 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