                                        {"id":2224,"date":"2026-06-16T20:10:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T20:10:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=2224"},"modified":"2026-06-16T20:10:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T20:10:35","slug":"ships-beginning-to-trickle-through-strait-of-hormuz-heres-how-long-it-will-take-to-return-to-normal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=2224","title":{"rendered":"Ships beginning to trickle through Strait of Hormuz \u2014 here&#8217;s how long it will take to return to normal"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Ships are slowly trickling through the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement of a peace deal between the US and Iran \u2014 but it will take more than two months for traffic to return to pre-war levels, experts warned.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=2222\">Skeptical Republicans in Congress aren\u2019t backing Trump on Iran deal before reading text<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Only a handful of ships have started crossing the strait since Sunday\u2019s agreement, including the Malta-flagged Disha\u00a0gas tanker, which was among the first to openly transit Hormuz as it heads for India.<\/p>\n<p>The majority of the 500 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf, however, are not expected to get underway until Friday\u2019s signing in Switzerland.<\/p>\n<p>Even then, only 15 ships are expected to cross each day, Ana Subasic, a trade risk analyst at the Kpler maritime data firm, told The Post. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn that scenario, it would take about 30 days to clear out the backlog of ships,\u201d Subasic said. \u201cAll in all, it could take eight weeks to tackle all the constraints and issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Prior to the war in Iran, more than 130 ships flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, which also oversaw the transport of 20% of the world\u2019s oil supply. <\/p>\n<p>It may take even longer to return to that shipping level \u2014 because disagreements still stand between the US and Iran over ownership of the Strait of Hormuz and the uncertainty over how many mines remain in the waterway.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe key point is that the Strait may reopen quickly from a political or security perspective, but the commercial shipping system is likely to normalize gradually,\u201d said Dimitris Ampatzidis, a maritime risk and compliance manager at Kpler. <\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=2220\">Details of US-Iran deal revealed \u2014 timeline for US withdrawal, $300B fund, Hormuz passage<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ships will likely wait for confirmation from both the US Navy and Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps before braving the strait, added Matthew Reisner, a senior national security analyst at the Center for Maritime Strategy.  <\/p>\n<p>Once more ships start crossing without incident, more and more captains will grow confident to go through, but it may take a while before the impacts are felt on the global market, Reisner noted. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf the peace holds, expect gas prices to begin dropping over the next one to two weeks in response to the decrease in crude oil prices, which already fell more than 5% on Monday morning in response to the announced peace framework,\u201d he said.  <\/p>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cHowever, it will likely take several months for gas prices to reach their pre-war levels,\u201d Reisner added. <\/p>\n<p>That relief, however, may be further delayed should Iran enact a toll system in the strait following the 60-day cease-fire, which could create a free-for-all as nations try to curry favor with Tehran to get the best deals or look for alternative shipping lanes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs a result, we would likely see higher oil prices, longer transit times as some operators reroute, and a more fragmented global shipping market where access to the strait will depend on political alignment, as much as economics,\u201d said Karin Storm, vice president at the Proxima procurement and supply chain consultants. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cGiven that around 20% of global oil flows through Hormuz, even modest disruption will feed quickly into inflation, transport costs, and ultimately consumer prices worldwide,\u201d she added. <\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/metrotransitreview.com\/?p=2218\">Moment vicious brawl breaks out in stands of Iran World Cup match<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ships are slowly trickling through the Strait of Hormuz following the initial peace deal signing between the US and Iran \u2014 but it will take more than two months for traffic to return to pre-war levels, experts warned. 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