Breaking down matchups for Argentina-Spain World Cup final — plus a prediction
Here we are, 103 matches later.
The biggest sporting event on the planet takes place Sunday at 3 p.m. at MetLife Stadium when Spain faces Argentina in the World Cup final. After five wondrous weeks across three countries and 16 cities, featuring Scots drinking and Cape Verdean joy, English angst and Norwegian rowing, it is the first final in history to feature the reigning European champion against the reigning South American champion.
Spain has cut a clean path to the final, outscoring opposition 13-1 across seven games while rarely looking at serious risk. Argentina relied on last-minute heroics to beat Cape Verde, Egypt and England, and needed extra time to get past Switzerland, and yet has retained an aura of invincibility all the same.
The Post breaks down the matchups in the World Cup Final.
When Spain has the ball
“We need to be faithful, loyal to our football idea,” manager Luis de la Fuente said Friday. That means using unending possession, short and deliberate passes and aggressive counterpressing to suffocate the opposition.
Spain’s midfield, with Rodri and Fabián Ruiz playing behind Dani Olmo, has dominantly executed that vision all tournament, particularly in the knockout stage. While there are worries about Lamine Yamal’s hamstring after the winger received a knock in the semifinal, La Roja’s play in the wide areas has set up much of its scoring until now, and will continue to be key.
Argentina is vulnerable there, with right back Nahuel Molina getting picked on for England’s only goal in the semifinal and left back Nicolás Tagliafico having an up-and-down tournament. The interplay between Yamal and Pedro Porro on the right, as well as Marc Cucurella and Alex Baena on the left, will be huge for Spain. If they can set up crosses to the back post with numbers in the box — an area in which it has excelled, and something Argentina has struggled to defend — Spain will be cooking with gas.
Meanwhile, Spain’s midfield and the rest of its defense — with its center backs and defensive midfielders setting up in a box and quickly winning balls back — can keep a stranglehold on the game if not addressed. Argentina’s physicality in defense presents a potential obstacle, and Spain will need to keep its head. An early yellow card to someone like Leandro Paredes or Cristian Romero, though, could neuter that.
For Argentina, much of this will be about surviving — and taking advantage of the chances it can get to break.
When Argentina has the ball
No one has found a way to break Spain’s grip on ball possession, and it doesn’t seem likely to be Argentina.
That doesn’t mean La Albiceleste don’t have potential ways through the counterpress, or to score.
Argentina can strike fast in transition, and its ladder passing structure — breaking defensive lines by using vertical passing between three players with the second playing in between — looks designed to beat Spain’s high press. The extensive experience this team has had playing together, and under manager Lionel Scaloni, also matters so much on stages like this. In moments that require fast decisions, everyone knows where their teammates are going.
Spain, though, has been the best defense in this tournament. It’s got the lowest expected goals against, the fewest shots allowed, the most clean sheets. Much of that is because of the way it holds on to the ball, but center backs Pau Cubarsí and Aymeric Laporte have been the best duo in the World Cup too — Cubarsí has been so good that it can be argued that Yamal isn’t the best teenager in Spain’s lineup.
Set pieces, where Argentina has scored three times from corners and twice from direct free kicks, might be an area where it can create something.
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Argentina’s X factor, of course, is Messi. His spatial awareness and anticipation are better than any player in history, not to mention his skill with the ball at his feet. He can always make things happen, or see opportunities before they open up.
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Intangibles
The weather at kickoff is forecast at 82 degrees, feeling like 85, and sunny with air quality that — while better than it’s been — won’t be great. Spain has played outdoors just once in the tournament, at night in Guadalajara, Mexico. Argentina has done so more often, but its games in Kansas City, Mo. and Miami have also been at night. The lack of experience in the heat will make it a major factor for both teams, and whether the advantage tilts toward Argentina, which has dealt with it more, or Spain, which doesn’t have quite the same mileage having played in it less, is a matter of opinion.
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As for fan makeup, expectation is it will be a largely Argentine crowd. La Albiceleste’s fanbase has traveled better than just about any other all tournament. That said, the final tends to be a largely corporate atmosphere, and that’s likely the case this time too, given exorbitant ticket prices.
Prediction
Spain 2-1, on penalties.
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